Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition

Adewole S. Oladele, Vera Vokolkova, Jerome A. Egwurube

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    Botswana is a Southern African country with an area of about 582,000 sq. km and its small population of about 2 million people. The road transportation network has grown beyond all expectations since independence in 1966. Out of the 18,300 km Botswana Public Highway Networks, gravel road networks are significant in providing access to rural areas where the majority of the population lives. Modelling of gravel loss conditions are required in order to predict their conditions in the future and provide information on the manner in which pavements perform. Such information can be applied to transportation planning, decision making processes and identification of future maintenance interventions. The results of previous attempts to develop gravel loss condition forecasting models using multiple linear regression (MLR) approach have not been reliable. This paper intended to develop accurate and reliable performance models which best capture the effects of gravel loss condition influencing factors using Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) modeling technique. As extension of knowledge in unpaved road transportation network, FFNN trained with Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M) method was used to develop gravel loss performance prediction model for Botswana gravel road networks to achieve a reliable result of a higher coefficient of determinant R2 = 0.94 compared with MLR analysis of R2 = 0.74.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationAdvances in Civil Engineering II
    Pages2976-2982
    Number of pages7
    Volume256-259
    EditionPART 1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    Event2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering and Transportation, ICCET 2012 - Guilin, China
    Duration: Oct 27 2012Oct 28 2012

    Publication series

    NameApplied Mechanics and Materials
    NumberPART 1
    Volume256-259
    ISSN (Print)16609336
    ISSN (Electronic)16627482

    Other

    Other2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering and Transportation, ICCET 2012
    CountryChina
    CityGuilin
    Period10/27/1210/28/12

    Fingerprint

    Gravel
    Pavements
    Gravel roads
    Planning
    Feedforward neural networks
    Linear regression
    Regression analysis
    Decision making

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Engineering(all)

    Cite this

    Oladele, A. S., Vokolkova, V., & Egwurube, J. A. (2013). Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition. In Advances in Civil Engineering II (PART 1 ed., Vol. 256-259, pp. 2976-2982). (Applied Mechanics and Materials; Vol. 256-259, No. PART 1). https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.256-259.2976
    Oladele, Adewole S. ; Vokolkova, Vera ; Egwurube, Jerome A. / Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition. Advances in Civil Engineering II. Vol. 256-259 PART 1. ed. 2013. pp. 2976-2982 (Applied Mechanics and Materials; PART 1).
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    Oladele, AS, Vokolkova, V & Egwurube, JA 2013, Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition. in Advances in Civil Engineering II. PART 1 edn, vol. 256-259, Applied Mechanics and Materials, no. PART 1, vol. 256-259, pp. 2976-2982, 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering and Transportation, ICCET 2012, Guilin, China, 10/27/12. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.256-259.2976

    Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition. / Oladele, Adewole S.; Vokolkova, Vera; Egwurube, Jerome A.

    Advances in Civil Engineering II. Vol. 256-259 PART 1. ed. 2013. p. 2976-2982 (Applied Mechanics and Materials; Vol. 256-259, No. PART 1).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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    Oladele AS, Vokolkova V, Egwurube JA. Transportation planning through pavement performance prediction modeling for Botswana gravel loss condition. In Advances in Civil Engineering II. PART 1 ed. Vol. 256-259. 2013. p. 2976-2982. (Applied Mechanics and Materials; PART 1). https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.256-259.2976