SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
    PublisherACTA Press
    Pages51-58
    Number of pages8
    ISBN (Electronic)9780889869738
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    Event5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014 - Gaborone, Botswana
    Duration: Sep 1 2014Sep 3 2014

    Other

    Other5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014
    CountryBotswana
    CityGaborone
    Period9/1/149/3/14

    Fingerprint

    Drought
    Precipitation (meteorology)
    Climate change
    drought
    climate change
    basin
    Catchments
    river basin
    Rivers
    index

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Environmental Engineering
    • Water Science and Technology

    Cite this

    Tirivarombo, S. (2014). SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. In Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014 (pp. 51-58). ACTA Press. https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012
    Tirivarombo, Sithabile. / SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ACTA Press, 2014. pp. 51-58
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    title = "SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts",
    abstract = "This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3{\%} to 12{\%}, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.",
    author = "Sithabile Tirivarombo",
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    doi = "10.2316/P.2014.812-012",
    language = "English",
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    Tirivarombo, S 2014, SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. in Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ACTA Press, pp. 51-58, 5th IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014, Gaborone, Botswana, 9/1/14. https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012

    SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. / Tirivarombo, Sithabile.

    Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ACTA Press, 2014. p. 51-58.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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    AB - This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on agricultural droughts in the Zambezi River basin. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to estimate drought occurrence and severity, historically and in the near future (2064-2065). Outputs of three downscaled and bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the A2 emissions scenario are employed to evaluate the impact of climate change on future droughts in the basin. Based on the three GCMs it is anticipated that the basin will experience a generally increasing but minimal trend in precipitation in the range of 0.3% to 12%, with increased normal conditions and the possibility of a lower frequency of occurrence of severe to extreme drought events. The study also reveals that there is uncertainty associated with the GCMs as to the magnitude and direction of change of the basin's response to future climate change.

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    Tirivarombo S. SPI-climate change impacts on agricultural droughts. In Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Environment and Water Resource Management, AfricaEWRM 2014. ACTA Press. 2014. p. 51-58 https://doi.org/10.2316/P.2014.812-012