Impacts of constrained culling and vaccination on control of foot and mouth disease in near-endemic settings: A pair approximation model

N. Ringa, C. T. Bauch

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many countries have eliminated foot and mouth disease (FMD), but outbreaks remain common in other countries. Rapid development of international trade in animals and animal products has increased the risk of disease introduction to FMD-free countries. Most mathematical models of FMD are tailored to settings that are normally disease-free, and few models have explored the impact of constrained control measures in a 'near-endemic' spatially distributed host population subject to frequent FMD re-introductions from nearby endemic wild populations, as characterizes many low-income, resource-limited countries. Here we construct a pair approximation model of FMD and investigate the impact of constraints on total vaccine supply for prophylactic and ring vaccination, and constraints on culling rates and cumulative culls. We incorporate natural immunity waning and vaccine waning, which are important factors for near-endemic populations. We find that, when vaccine supply is sufficiently limited, the optimal approach for minimizing cumulative infections combines rapid deployment of ring vaccination during outbreaks with a contrasting approach of careful rationing of prophylactic vaccination over the year, such that supplies last as long as possible (and with the bulk of vaccines dedicated toward prophylactic vaccination). Thus, for optimal long-term control of the disease by vaccination in near-endemic settings when vaccine supply is limited, it is best to spread out prophylactic vaccination as much as possible. Regardless of culling constraints, the optimal culling strategy is rapid identification of infected premises and their immediate contacts at the initial stages of an outbreak, and rapid culling of infected premises and farms deemed to be at high risk of infection (as opposed to culling only the infected farms). Optimal culling strategies are similar when social impact is the outcome of interest. We conclude that more FMD transmission models should be developed that are specific to the challenges of FMD control in near-endemic, low-income countries.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18-30
Number of pages13
JournalEpidemics
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2014

Fingerprint

Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Vaccination
Vaccines
Disease Outbreaks
Population
Infection
Social Change
Innate Immunity
Theoretical Models

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Parasitology
  • Epidemiology
  • Microbiology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Virology

Cite this

@article{68a39f9d2b854585ad030656ebee3ca3,
title = "Impacts of constrained culling and vaccination on control of foot and mouth disease in near-endemic settings: A pair approximation model",
abstract = "Many countries have eliminated foot and mouth disease (FMD), but outbreaks remain common in other countries. Rapid development of international trade in animals and animal products has increased the risk of disease introduction to FMD-free countries. Most mathematical models of FMD are tailored to settings that are normally disease-free, and few models have explored the impact of constrained control measures in a 'near-endemic' spatially distributed host population subject to frequent FMD re-introductions from nearby endemic wild populations, as characterizes many low-income, resource-limited countries. Here we construct a pair approximation model of FMD and investigate the impact of constraints on total vaccine supply for prophylactic and ring vaccination, and constraints on culling rates and cumulative culls. We incorporate natural immunity waning and vaccine waning, which are important factors for near-endemic populations. We find that, when vaccine supply is sufficiently limited, the optimal approach for minimizing cumulative infections combines rapid deployment of ring vaccination during outbreaks with a contrasting approach of careful rationing of prophylactic vaccination over the year, such that supplies last as long as possible (and with the bulk of vaccines dedicated toward prophylactic vaccination). Thus, for optimal long-term control of the disease by vaccination in near-endemic settings when vaccine supply is limited, it is best to spread out prophylactic vaccination as much as possible. Regardless of culling constraints, the optimal culling strategy is rapid identification of infected premises and their immediate contacts at the initial stages of an outbreak, and rapid culling of infected premises and farms deemed to be at high risk of infection (as opposed to culling only the infected farms). Optimal culling strategies are similar when social impact is the outcome of interest. We conclude that more FMD transmission models should be developed that are specific to the challenges of FMD control in near-endemic, low-income countries.",
author = "N. Ringa and Bauch, {C. T.}",
year = "2014",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.008",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
pages = "18--30",
journal = "Epidemics",
issn = "1755-4365",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Impacts of constrained culling and vaccination on control of foot and mouth disease in near-endemic settings : A pair approximation model. / Ringa, N.; Bauch, C. T.

In: Epidemics, Vol. 9, 01.12.2014, p. 18-30.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts of constrained culling and vaccination on control of foot and mouth disease in near-endemic settings

T2 - A pair approximation model

AU - Ringa, N.

AU - Bauch, C. T.

PY - 2014/12/1

Y1 - 2014/12/1

N2 - Many countries have eliminated foot and mouth disease (FMD), but outbreaks remain common in other countries. Rapid development of international trade in animals and animal products has increased the risk of disease introduction to FMD-free countries. Most mathematical models of FMD are tailored to settings that are normally disease-free, and few models have explored the impact of constrained control measures in a 'near-endemic' spatially distributed host population subject to frequent FMD re-introductions from nearby endemic wild populations, as characterizes many low-income, resource-limited countries. Here we construct a pair approximation model of FMD and investigate the impact of constraints on total vaccine supply for prophylactic and ring vaccination, and constraints on culling rates and cumulative culls. We incorporate natural immunity waning and vaccine waning, which are important factors for near-endemic populations. We find that, when vaccine supply is sufficiently limited, the optimal approach for minimizing cumulative infections combines rapid deployment of ring vaccination during outbreaks with a contrasting approach of careful rationing of prophylactic vaccination over the year, such that supplies last as long as possible (and with the bulk of vaccines dedicated toward prophylactic vaccination). Thus, for optimal long-term control of the disease by vaccination in near-endemic settings when vaccine supply is limited, it is best to spread out prophylactic vaccination as much as possible. Regardless of culling constraints, the optimal culling strategy is rapid identification of infected premises and their immediate contacts at the initial stages of an outbreak, and rapid culling of infected premises and farms deemed to be at high risk of infection (as opposed to culling only the infected farms). Optimal culling strategies are similar when social impact is the outcome of interest. We conclude that more FMD transmission models should be developed that are specific to the challenges of FMD control in near-endemic, low-income countries.

AB - Many countries have eliminated foot and mouth disease (FMD), but outbreaks remain common in other countries. Rapid development of international trade in animals and animal products has increased the risk of disease introduction to FMD-free countries. Most mathematical models of FMD are tailored to settings that are normally disease-free, and few models have explored the impact of constrained control measures in a 'near-endemic' spatially distributed host population subject to frequent FMD re-introductions from nearby endemic wild populations, as characterizes many low-income, resource-limited countries. Here we construct a pair approximation model of FMD and investigate the impact of constraints on total vaccine supply for prophylactic and ring vaccination, and constraints on culling rates and cumulative culls. We incorporate natural immunity waning and vaccine waning, which are important factors for near-endemic populations. We find that, when vaccine supply is sufficiently limited, the optimal approach for minimizing cumulative infections combines rapid deployment of ring vaccination during outbreaks with a contrasting approach of careful rationing of prophylactic vaccination over the year, such that supplies last as long as possible (and with the bulk of vaccines dedicated toward prophylactic vaccination). Thus, for optimal long-term control of the disease by vaccination in near-endemic settings when vaccine supply is limited, it is best to spread out prophylactic vaccination as much as possible. Regardless of culling constraints, the optimal culling strategy is rapid identification of infected premises and their immediate contacts at the initial stages of an outbreak, and rapid culling of infected premises and farms deemed to be at high risk of infection (as opposed to culling only the infected farms). Optimal culling strategies are similar when social impact is the outcome of interest. We conclude that more FMD transmission models should be developed that are specific to the challenges of FMD control in near-endemic, low-income countries.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84908037944&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84908037944&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.008

DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.008

M3 - Article

C2 - 25480131

AN - SCOPUS:84908037944

VL - 9

SP - 18

EP - 30

JO - Epidemics

JF - Epidemics

SN - 1755-4365

ER -