Households' welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa

J. S. Juana, K. M. Strzepek, J. F. Kirsten

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Most of the climate change models for South Africa predict a reduction in freshwater availability by 2050. Population growth is projected at 3% per annum, implying increased domestic water use. In addition to these factors the concern for ecological sustainability and increased water pollution due to increased industrial, mining and agricultural activities, water availability for sectoral production activities is expected to decline. This decline has an impact on sectoral output, value added and households' welfare. Using a computable general equilibrium approach, this study investigates the possible impact of global change on households' welfare. The simulation results show that water scarcity due to global change can potentially lead to a general deterioration in households' welfare. The poor households, whose incomes are adversely impacted, are the most vulnerable to the consequences of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. This vulnerability can only be reduced if welfare policies that maintain food consumption levels for the least and low-income households are implemented.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)309-326
Number of pages18
JournalAgrekon
Volume47
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1 2008

Fingerprint

global change
water resources
households
South Africa
welfare
water resource
household income
water
resources
low income households
water shortages
environmental sustainability
food consumption
value added
water pollution
water activity
water availability
water use
population growth
vulnerability

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Geography, Planning and Development

Cite this

Juana, J. S. ; Strzepek, K. M. ; Kirsten, J. F. / Households' welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. In: Agrekon. 2008 ; Vol. 47, No. 3. pp. 309-326.
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Households' welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. / Juana, J. S.; Strzepek, K. M.; Kirsten, J. F.

In: Agrekon, Vol. 47, No. 3, 01.09.2008, p. 309-326.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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