Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

Esther Chigidi, Edward M. Lungu

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Abstract

We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)427-450
Number of pages24
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume6
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2009

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics

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