Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

Esther Chigidi, Edward M. Lungu

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)427-450
    Number of pages24
    JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
    Volume6
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2009

    Fingerprint

    Botswana
    Progression
    HIV
    Reproduction number
    Deterministic Model
    disease course
    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
    Estimate
    pathogenicity
    death
    Therapeutics
    Model
    Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy
    Population
    Reproduction
    Disease Progression

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Medicine(all)
    • Modelling and Simulation
    • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
    • Computational Mathematics
    • Applied Mathematics

    Cite this

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    abstract = "We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc ≈ 1-3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.",
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    Hiv model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives. / Chigidi, Esther; Lungu, Edward M.

    In: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol. 6, No. 3, 07.2009, p. 427-450.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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