Current and predicted fertility using Poisson regression model

evidence from 2008 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey.

Adeniyi F. Fagbamigbe, Ayo S. Adebowale

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Nigeria with persistent high growth rate is among top ten most populous countries. Monitoring key mechanisms of population dynamics particularly fertility in Nigeria is long overdue. Periodical availability of data on fertility and other demographic indices is scarce, hence this study. Our objective was to build a non-linear model to identify fertility determinants and predict fertility using women's background characteristics. We used 2008 Nigeria Demography and Health Survey dataset consisting of 33,385 women with 31.4% from urban area. Fertility was measured using children ever born (CEB) and fitted into multi-factors additive Poisson regression models. Respondents mean age was 28.64 +/- 9.59 years, average CEB of 3.13 +/- 3.07 but higher among rural women than urban women (3.42 +/- 3.16 vs 2.53 +/- 2.79). Women aged 20-24years were about twice as likely to have higher CEB as those aged 15-19 years (IRR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.95-2.18). Model with minimum deviance was selected and was used to predict CEB by the woman.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)71-83
    Number of pages13
    JournalAfrican journal of reproductive health
    Volume18
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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    Fertility
    Demography
    Nigeria
    Nonlinear Dynamics
    Population Dynamics
    Health Surveys
    Growth

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Medicine(all)

    Cite this

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    abstract = "Nigeria with persistent high growth rate is among top ten most populous countries. Monitoring key mechanisms of population dynamics particularly fertility in Nigeria is long overdue. Periodical availability of data on fertility and other demographic indices is scarce, hence this study. Our objective was to build a non-linear model to identify fertility determinants and predict fertility using women's background characteristics. We used 2008 Nigeria Demography and Health Survey dataset consisting of 33,385 women with 31.4{\%} from urban area. Fertility was measured using children ever born (CEB) and fitted into multi-factors additive Poisson regression models. Respondents mean age was 28.64 +/- 9.59 years, average CEB of 3.13 +/- 3.07 but higher among rural women than urban women (3.42 +/- 3.16 vs 2.53 +/- 2.79). Women aged 20-24years were about twice as likely to have higher CEB as those aged 15-19 years (IRR = 2.06, 95{\%} CI: 1.95-2.18). Model with minimum deviance was selected and was used to predict CEB by the woman.",
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