Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3%) will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28millionm3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3%) the unmet water demand is 87.42millionm3 in 2030, 158.38millionm3 in 2035 and 380.72millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use technology efficiency improvement and water harvesting which give satisfactory result in mitigating unmet demand of climate change and population growth in the city.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)21-33
Number of pages13
JournalClimate Risk Management
Volume18
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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Ethiopia
water demand
population growth
water management
climate change
water supply
surface water
water
scenario
demand
climate
supply and demand
water use
climate modeling
urbanization
planning model
trend
city
shortage
projection

Cite this

Kifle Arsiso, Bisrat ; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw ; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik ; Tadesse, Tsegaye. / Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In: Climate Risk Management. 2017 ; Vol. 18. pp. 21-33.
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abstract = "Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3{\%}) will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28millionm3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3{\%}) the unmet water demand is 87.42millionm3 in 2030, 158.38millionm3 in 2035 and 380.72millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use technology efficiency improvement and water harvesting which give satisfactory result in mitigating unmet demand of climate change and population growth in the city.",
author = "{Kifle Arsiso}, Bisrat and {Mengistu Tsidu}, Gizaw and Stoffberg, {Gerrit Hendrik} and Tsegaye Tadesse",
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Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. / Kifle Arsiso, Bisrat; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik; Tadesse, Tsegaye.

In: Climate Risk Management, Vol. 18, 2017, p. 21-33.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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AU - Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw

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AU - Tadesse, Tsegaye

PY - 2017

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N2 - Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3%) will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28millionm3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3%) the unmet water demand is 87.42millionm3 in 2030, 158.38millionm3 in 2035 and 380.72millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use technology efficiency improvement and water harvesting which give satisfactory result in mitigating unmet demand of climate change and population growth in the city.

AB - Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3%) will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28millionm3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3%) the unmet water demand is 87.42millionm3 in 2030, 158.38millionm3 in 2035 and 380.72millionm3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use technology efficiency improvement and water harvesting which give satisfactory result in mitigating unmet demand of climate change and population growth in the city.

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